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简介
The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't 豆 7.7分
资源最后更新于 2020-08-16 20:27:14
作者：Nate Silver
出版社：Penguin Press HC, The
出版日期：2012-01
ISBN：9781594204111
文件格式： pdf
标签： 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
简介· · · · · ·
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.co...
目录
Introduction 1
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515
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